Scene set for rugby sevens-skating showdown

Here is a good article from The New Zealand Herald by Peter Williams.

Peter Williams: Scene set for rugby sevens-skating showdown

It's August, a month of decision for the Lords (and one Lady) of the Rings.

In 11 days, the Executive Board of the International Olympic Committee will meet at IOC headquarters in Lausanne, Switzerland, to decide which two sports might be added to the Olympic Games in 2016.

The 15 members, 14 men and 1984 women's 400m hurdles gold medallist Nawal el Moutawakel, will recommend two of seven applicant sports to be part of 2016. The recommendations have to be approved by the full IOC session in October with a sport needing a two-thirds majority to make the final programme.

Cross off baseball and softball straight away. At Olympic level, they're single sex sports; they were played in Beijing last year; won't be in London and are unlikely to come back quickly. Major League Baseball's unwillingness to release the game's superstars for the Olympics doesn't help.

Karate's major problem is that Judo and Taekwondo are already in the Olympics. I doubt another martial arts sport will join them.

Despite my close affinity with golf, I can't see it making the cut. The format and eligibility criteria put up by the International Golf Federation are both too restrictive and non-inclusive. Fields of 60, based on world rankings and with an unlimited number of players from countries with two or more in the top 15, will lead to ridiculously unbalanced fields.

For instance, based on this week's world rankings, there'd be 24 Koreans and 19 Americans in the women's Olympic tournament, and competitors from just 12 countries. The men's field would have 25 Americans, 11 from Great Britain and only 16 countries represented. Despite the IOC's desire to have the world's sporting superstars, Tiger Woods will be 40 in 2016 and who knows what his star power will be by then.

Squash's big problem is its lack of televisual appeal. Huge progress has been made with glass courts and a coloured ball but the end result is it's a bit like ice hockey. It's darn hard to see the ball.

So that leaves rugby sevens and roller sports. I like the chances of both making it as medal sports. Sevens doesn't need a purpose-built facility. It can use the main stadium for two days between the opening ceremony and the start of the track and field programme.

It also offers real medal chances to smaller nations like Fiji and Samoa. This year's Sevens World Cup in Dubai was a huge success with big TV audiences, and the women's competition as popular as the men's. That's likely to be the most watched rugby event of the year.

Roller sports ticks all the boxes. A combination of speed skating and dancing events could do for the Summer Olympics what ice skating does for the Winter Games. There's tremendous TV appeal, young participants and, as with BMX racing and whitewater canoeing, there's a real sense of excitement about racing on in-line skates.

Of the 15 board members, only el Moutawakel and former Namibian sprint ace Frank Fredericks were born after 1960.

Despite the advanced middle age of most members, the IOC's recent decisions suggest they want sports with wide appeal to youth, a huge appeal on TV and the potential to improve the geographic spread of medals.

The 2016 host city won't be decided till October but I reckon we can get set to enjoy rugby sevens and roller sports at the 31st Olympiad.